My NCAA picks, and a few thoughts about brackets

My friend Michael Kruse, a Davidson grad who wrote a great book on the Wildcats' 2008 run to the Final Eight, isn't fond of March Madness brackets. "The thing is the thing. Your brackets are not," he says, meaning we should watch the games and enjoy them for what they are, not for whether some last-second shot means you rise or fall in the office pool.

Michael is almost always right, and he's right about this, too.

Mostly.

I'd just make two small observations:

1) For a lot of people, the brackets are the ONLY reason they watch. The St. Mary's-Purdue game is not naturally gripping to them because sports aren't naturally gripping to them. The brackets give them a reason to care. And maybe, along the way, the grip takes hold.

2) For a lot of other people, the brackets are a way to catch up on a regular season they've missed. I keep up with the major conferences, but don't watch nearly much college hoops as I used to. Is Wichita State really that good? Can Harvard make a run? The brackets start to organize the stories in our heads.

As I've said many times, the first two days of the tournament are my favorite days of the sports year, and maybe 10 percent of that is because of the brackets. I don't know many true fans who care more about their brackets than the games. I'll take a great finish over my pick anytime.

Having said that, I'd be fine with going 63-0.

I think you can find my full bracket under my name over at the Observer's contest, but I'll put the picks here, too. Upsets are marked with an exclamation point.

SOUTH
First round: Kentucky over W. Kentucky, UConn over Iowa State (!), Wichita State over VCU, Indiana over New Mexico State, UNLV over Colorado, Baylor over South Dakota St., Xavier over Notre Dame (!), Duke over Lehigh.

Second round: Kentucky over UConn, Wichita State over Indiana (!), Baylor over UNLV, Duke over Xavier.

Sweet 16: Kentucky over Wichita State, Baylor over Duke (!).

Elite 8: Baylor over Kentucky (!). Kentucky is the big favorite to win the whole thing, but Baylor is just as athletic and a little deeper. Baylor is one of those teams that could, on a given night, either beat an NBA team or lose in the first round. I've got a weak spot for those kinds of teams. Which means my bracket could be blown to bits by the weekend.

WEST
First round: Michigan St. over LIU-Brooklyn, St. Louis over Memphis (!), Long Beach State over New Mexico (!), Louisville over Davidson (I thought hard about this one, but couldn't pull the trigger...), Murray St. over Colorado St., Marquette over BYU, Florida over Virginia, Missouri over Norfolk State.

Second round: Michigan St. over St. Louis, Long Beach over Louisville (!), Marquette over Murray St., Missouri over Florida.

Sweet 16: Michigan St. over Long Beach, Missouri over Marquette.

Regional final: Missouri over Michigan St. (!)


EAST
First round: Syracuse over UNC-Asheville, Southern Miss over Kansas St. (!), Vandy over Harvard, Montana over Wisconsin (!), Cincinnati over Texas, FSU over St. Bonaventure, West Virginia over Gonzaga (!), Ohio State over Loyola (Md.).

Second round: Syracuse over Southern Miss, Vandy over Montana, FSU over Cincy, Ohio State over West Virginia.

Sweet 16: Vandy over Syracuse (!), Ohio State over FSU.

Regional final: Ohio State over Vandy.

MIDWEST
First round: UNC over Lamar/Vermont winner, Alabama over Creighton (!), Cal/South Florida winner (I'm thinking Cal) over Temple (!), Ohio over Michigan (!), San Diego State over NC State, Georgetown over Belmont, Purdue over St. Mary's (!), Kansas over Detroit. Lots of upsets here.

Second round: UNC over Alabama, Ohio over Cal/South Florida winner (!), G'town over San Diego St., Kansas over Purdue. Ohio is my other big sleeper. I just want ONE team named the Bobcats to win a couple of games.

Sweet 16: UNC over Ohio, Kansas over G'town.

Regional final: UNC over Kansas in the Roy Williams Invitational.


FINAL FOUR

Missouri over Baylor
Ohio State over UNC

TITLE GAME

Missouri 73, Ohio State 62


Let the mocking begin!

Dean Smith, comments, and you

On Saturday we published a story on Dean Smith that I'd been working on for a while with Robbi Pickeral, the great UNC basketball beat writer for the Raleigh News & Observer. Now that the story has been out in the world for a couple of days, the most gratifying thing about it is something I had nothing to do with: the quality of the online comments.

As I write this, there are 66 comments about the story on the Observer's page, and all but a couple are respectful, thoughtful and touching. Several Duke fans have written in to say that, even though UNC is their biggest rival, they still admired the way Smith coached and leads his life.

Comments often add a lot to the understanding of a story -- they can flesh out details in stories, pick out flaws, start debates, and even break news. Sometimes the comments are better than the story (and that includes a good number of my stories). I don't mind that it sometimes feels more like a saloon than a salon. The best answer to free speech is more free speech.

Having said all that, sometimes it's depressing to see how the comments turn out. Complicated thoughts can get reduced to political talking points. Vulnerable people can get pounded by personal attacks. A small group of posters can dominate the discussion, and drive out people who want to have a conversation instead of a shouting match.

The comments on the N&O's site about the Dean Smith story have more of an edge to them, although they're still mild compared to a lot of other stories we publish.

I'd love to hear any thoughts you have on how to make our comments better -- or your thoughts on why you like them the way they are.

And we really appreciate all of you who wrote in about this story. The comments really added to the discussion, and that's always our goal.

LeBron's choice

LeBron James is a father of two who lives in Bath Township, Ohio. It's about 10 miles from Akron, where he grew up, and less than 30 from Cleveland, where he works for a living. He makes as much in salary as the NBA allows, plus millions more in endorsements, and his home is a 33,000-square-foot mansion. But set aside the dollar signs and he's like thousands of others from his hometown. Grew up poor. Didn't go to college. Maybe dreamed that one day, if things broke right, he could load up the car and drive north on I-77 for a life in the big city.

Things broke right. Now, in this awful economy, LeBron James is a rare soul: a 25-year-old with multiple job offers. All he has to do is decide what he wants.

When you were 25, did you know what you wanted?

Because of the way we live now, when LeBron announces his new team tonight, it will be on an hourlong ESPN special, with the main interviewer (Jim Gray) chosen by LeBron himself, all tied into LeBron's new website and new Twitter feed. (This morning's reports -- unconfirmed -- say that LeBron will announce he's playing for the Miami Heat.) Even before the TV special happens, it's being ripped as a giant ego stunt, an overhyped me-fest for a player who, as great as he is, has yet to win an NBA title.

I'm sure LeBron has an ego. But I'm not sure this is about ego. Maybe it's about control.

When you were 25, did you feel like you were in control?

The choices among his suitors seem fairly clear. If basketball -- winning championships -- is the main thing, he has to go to Miami or Chicago. Miami re-signed its superstar, Dwyane Wade, and is adding top-flight forward Chris Bosh. Chicago has dazzling point guard Derrick Rose and just signed All-Star Carlos Boozer. Either of those teams, with LeBron, is an instant favorite to make the NBA Finals.

If glamor is the thing, he has to go to New York. The Knicks have been awful for years; even with LeBron and free-agent pickup Amar'e Stoudemire, they might not be great. But in New York, LeBron can go on Letterman anytime he wants, and get standing O's at the Yankees games, and have a shot at being the biggest guy in the biggest city.

If loyalty is the thing -- and LeBron has a LOYALTY tattoo along his rib cage -- he has to go back to Cleveland. I'm not sure what kind of team he could put together now. Nearly all the big free agents have already signed. Whatever he assembles there would probably be underdogs to Orlando, Chicago, Miami and maybe Boston -- and that's just in the Eastern Conference. A long-term deal with Cleveland might mean three or four years before he has a prime shot at a title. And after 10 or 11 years of NBA pounding, even the best bodies start to break down.

But if he does win it all in Cleveland... it becomes one of the best sports stories in history. Kid grows up rooting for the local team, ends up playing for the local team, and wins a title for the local team -- but not just any local team, CLEVELAND, the city wrecked by decades of epic sports heartbreak. Could LeBron make up for all those times Cleveland fans have wound up doubled over in grief? Maybe only LeBron could.

Here's the thing, though. LeBron got to play for the local team. But he didn't choose to. He ended up in Cleveland because the Cavaliers won the 2003 draft lottery. If the Cavs hadn't won, LeBron could've opted for college. But more than likely he would've stayed in the draft and ended up with Detroit or Denver or one of the other teams with a high draft pick. And now, as a free agent, he'd have a chance to come back home.

As it worked out, he never went away. He's never been away. Even though he's played all over the country as an NBA star and all over the world as an Olympian, he has always lived within a few miles of where he grew up, and from his house it's a half-hour drive to work. Just like all those kids from Akron who grew up dreaming of a big house in town and a good job up in Cleveland.

Those are fine dreams. But other kids dream other things. They get to be 25 and they start to wonder what it might be like to set down roots somewhere else, to unpack your bags in a fresh town, to see how starting over changes you. It's not about rejecting home. It's about forcing yourself to grow by reaching for something new.

LeBron James is still a young man, but he has experienced things most of us can barely imagine. He's already one of the best ever at what he does. Fans adore him. The biggest sports network in the country is handing him an hour tonight to say what he wants to say. Millions of people are waiting for his choice.

And what I keep wondering is: Does he really know what he wants?

Does he dream about it?

And if he does, when he dreams, is he home or away?